Analysis: The evolutionary consequences of delaying intervention for monkeypox--Study

Evolutionary consequences of delaying intervention for monkeypox Since May, 2022, clusters of monkeypox infections have caused global concern. At present, this concern has been tempered by the fact that, even when uncontrolled, the number of infections is growing slowly, indicating a reproductive number (R) not much larger than unity. However, the effect of R on the probability of evolution might not be obvious. We suggest that, compared with zoonotic pathogens with large R values, those pathogens with R values just above 1, such as monkeypox virus, have a higher probability of evolution during the timeframe in which the number of cases remains low. The Lancet

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In general, our analysis from first principles highlights the benefits of rapid intervention even for mild emerging pathogens. In summary, just because a disease like monkeypox appears to be controllable does not mean it will stay controllable. Currently, monkeypox incidence is starting to decrease in Europe and North America. This reduction might be due to behavioural changes in at-risk populations and increased use of vaccines, but the epidemic is far from over and continued drive towards elimination is essential.

By reducing the chance of evolution, rapid and sustained intervention benefits not only local communities but also the world....